主题 Topic：Housing Investment in Urban China: Evidence from Chinese Household Survey
时间Time：4月1号（周五）｜ April 1st (Friday), 10:00 – 11:30 am
地点Venue：文波楼208室｜Room 208 , WENBO
主讲人Speaker：陈济冬，北京师范大学经济与工商管理学院助理教授，2015年获美国普林斯顿大学(Princeton University, USA)经济学博士学位，2014年到2015年期间曾于美国罗彻斯特大学 (University of Rochester)访问。他的论文已发表在American Journal of Political Science (SSCI), The Journal of European Political Science Association (SSCI)等国际知名经济期刊上。
研究领域:
政治经济学，应用博弈论，实验经济学，中国经济与治理
Dr. Jidong Chen is an assistant professor of Business School of Beijing Normal University. Dr. Chen earns his PhD degree in Economics at Princeton University, USA, in 2015, and was a visiting fellow in University of Rochester during 2014 and 2015. He has published academic paper in American Journal of Political Science (SSCI) and The Journal of European Political Science Association (SSCI).
Research Area:
Political Economy, Applied Game Theory, Experimental Economics, Chinese Economy and Governance
Abstract:
What explains the rapidly increasing housing investment demand in China? This paper conjectures that higher expected housing capital gains drive higher investment demand. Due to financial frictions which is prevalent in China, such demand takes place not only through households’ owning multiple houses, but also through their owning a larger primary living residence if they are constrained from buying multiple houses. We develop a simple framework to study how expected capital gains impact households' housing investment decisions when subject to financial constraints. Our empirical findings based on 2010 and 2011 household survey data are consistent with our theoretical predictions. Specifically, we find (1) households are more likely to own multiple houses when expecting higher capital gains; (2) the primary housing demand of those households who are constrained from owning multiple houses increases with the expected capital gains; (3) while for those who are not constrained, their primary residence demand does not increase with the expected capital gains. Furthermore, we find that wealthier households are more sensitive to changes in expected capital gains. Namely, the marginal effect of capital gains on housing investment is higher for wealthier households. This links the booming housing market to widening income inequality which is a typical growth pain in a developing country like China.
