主题 Topic：Urban consumers’ inflation forecasts and thecomponents of the urban household consumer price index (CPI) basket in China: Anew market-timing test
时间Time：5月20号（周五）｜ May 20th (Friday), 10:10 – 11:30 am
地点Venue：文波楼208室｜Room 208 , WENBO
主讲人Speaker：YoungBin Ahn，西南财经大学经济与管理研究院副教授 (SouthwesternUniversity of Finance and Economics), 2013年获美国纽约州立大学布法罗分校(SUNY at Buffalo)经济学博士学位。他的论文已发表在 Applied Economics(SSCI)等世界知名经济期刊上。
研究领域: 应用计量经济学，经济预期，宏观经济学
Dr. Young Bin Ahn is an associate professor of economics at ResearchInstitute of Economics and Management at Southwestern University of Finance andEconomics. Dr. Ahn earns his PhD degree in Economics at SUNY at Buffalo, USA,in 2013. He has published several academic papers in Applied Economics (SSCI)etc.
Research Area: AppliedEconometrics, Economic Forecasting, Macroeconomics
Abstract:
We evaluate the directional accuracy of inflation forecasts based on thesurvey data of urban savings account holders in China. By using a newmarket-timing test, we show that the urban consumers’ expectations of inflationare not a useful predictor of the overall consumer price index (CPI) and theurban household CPI (U-CPI) in China. However, after our in-depth analysisusing the inflation rate of each category in the U-CPI basket, we find that theconsumers’ forecasts are useful in predicting the movement of the residencecomponent in the U-CPI basket since the third quarter of 2009. Our findingsmight suggest that Chinese urban households have become more sensitive only tothe residence component of the U-CPI basket particularly since 2009/3Q, whichcauses the gap between reported inflation and experienced inflation.
